In a little
over 48 hours the good people of Scotland will vote in an historic referendum which
decides not only the fate of its governance but also how the rest of the Union
will be defined in the world. Make no bones about it; every vote cast is a momentous
decision from which there is no return. Whatever happens, these islands will
never be the same and Scotland will take a generation to recover. With a
country divided, wounds are being opened that will if not treated carefully
will fester as Scotland marches towards its future.
I won’t hide
my feelings; I am a true believer of a United Kingdom. We are stronger together.
The future is more assured and thanks to the arrogance and slack-jawed approach
by not only our incumbent prime minister but coalition government and an even
weaker stance by the Labour party we are on the verge of seeing the union
dissolved.
I can
understand a distrust of Westminster politics but to rage against that in the
face of common sense and advice seems very short term against what could be
long-term disastrous ramifications of a vote for independence.
An
independent Scotland (I will resist using the term IS) will not have a currency
union for the very reason that the Bank of England will not underwrite the huge
risks involved with a go-it-alone small nation. It’s not a case of if Scotland’s oil revenue dries up but when Scotland’s oil revenue dries up.
The UK estimates 16 billion barrels are left. Alex Salmond states 24 billion.
If we go in the middle and suggest 20 million as a conservative estimate which
equates to 20% of an independent Scotland’s entire budget who will make the
shortfall when oil runs dry? If an Independent Scotland overspends who will
make the shortfall? These are just two of the reasons why a currency union won’t
happen because the Rest of the UK (RUK) won’t be the falls guys in this scenario.
The notion
that an Independent Scotland will automatically join the EU is also a point
which Salmond adamantly states even though the EU itself has stated this could
take up to five years and then only if Scotland accepts the Euro as its form of
currency. But that’s okay because an Independent Scotland can join the list of
Nordic trading countries.
An Independent
Scotland wants to rid itself of nuclear weapons, maybe blue facial paint and
harsh language will work against unknown nuclear threat but one thing it won’t
do is allow them to join NATO despite what Mr Salmond says. Alex Salmond seems
to be living in total denial of any legitimate objection to an independent Scotland.
Not just partial denial but TOTAL denial. An Independent Scotland is beginning
to sound more and more like a one-party-state with President Salmond at the
head. His attitude of it’s my way or the highway is very unsettling.
Yes, things
aren’t sunshine over Leith with Scotland’s current arrangement in the UK.
Believe me it’s not for England too. We don’t even have our own
assembly/parliament, we don’t have the promise of extended powers, in fact as
an Englishman I watch Scottish MP’s presiding over and voting on affairs which
have nothing to do with the governance of Scotland but affect me as an
Englishman. Things are not fair, things are not equal but things are a damned sight
better together than apart.
This referendum
has been divisive, it has been damaging to the economy of the UK and it has
opened wounds which were once closed and caused rifts in families that were
never there. I only hope that whatever the outcome on Friday morning that those
divisions heal.
Regardless
of which way you are voting, think about your children’s future and their children’s
future and remember the old adage “How do you tell if a politician is lying?”
“It’s
because their lips are moving.” is true.
If the vote
is for yes then good luck and bon voyage because I think the voyage may be a
lot lonelier than you anticipate. I will be sad to see Scotland annex itself
from the rest of the UK. We will be weaker apart regardless of the spin and the
hyperbole from the politicians on both sides.
If it is a
vote for yes then Prime Minister Cameron should do the decent thing and
immediately resign. There is little point in calling for a new election or even
having the proposed election in May as we would then be placed in the bonkers
situation of re-electing Scottish MPs to reside over UK matters for a period of
16 months while the road to independence is mapped out. If it is a yes vote
then the RUK’s general election should be differed until Scottish independence
is complete.
The political
landscape for both an Independent Scotland and RUK will be changed forever,
making it very difficult for any party to have overall power in the RUK.
Alliances will be drawn and coalition governments will be the norm, with the
balance of power held by parties such as UKIP and other independents.
I honestly believe
this Pandora’s box was never fully thought through and I believe either way we
lose. Welcome to Lostland...
